WASHINGTON — Voters across America head to the polls Tuesday to conclude months of election drama, with the balance of power in Congress hanging in the balance. While the House of Representatives appears headed toward a Democratic handover — the party needs to flip only three seats with well over a dozen Republican seats in polling trouble — the Senate battle presents a far murkier prospect.
Democrats need to flip four of the 22 Republican seats up for reelection while holding all 13 of their own seats to secure a majority. If they lose one of their own, the target rises to five Republican seats. Right now, Republicans are behind at the polls in at least eight races where they currently hold seats. The Trump era has been defined by Republican undercounting in pre-election polling, which could make some Democratic leads appear illusory, though midterm polls tend to be more accurate. That undercount makes very close races in Alaska, Maine, and Iowa significantly more likely to break for Republicans. In Alaska, backlash over alleged campaign orchestration to confuse supporters over GOP nominees has added uncertainty to a closely contested contest. Republican candidates in Maine and Iowa, meanwhile, enjoy high likability ratings among voters.
Democrats appear to have more sizable edges in Texas, Ohio, and North Carolina, making those races likely if not certain to turn blue. In North Carolina, Democratic Roy Cooper is firmly in control. Texas Democrat James Talarico has widened his advantage over Ken Paxton in recent days, and former Sen. Sherrod Brown has opened a narrow advantage over Jon Husted. Kansas is perhaps the best bet for a Democratic flip, with moderate pastor Rev. Adam Hamilton putting some daylight between himself and incumbent Roger Marshall — a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since the Great Depression. South Carolina faces chaos with the candidacy of political newcomer Darline Graham, sister of Sen. Lindsey Graham, which could open the door to her pediatrician challenger Annie Andrews.
Even if Democrats fall short of a Senate majority and the chamber ends up 50-50, decided by the vice president, it could hamper the GOP agenda by opening the possibility of peeling any single Republican from the caucus to block a vote. Democrats could take heart in a possible blue-red reversal in Florida, where David Jolly is within a few points of the Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds for an open governorship, though the state has not elected a Democratic governor in 32 years.
The outcome will significantly influence the balance of power and legislative feasibility for the coming term, as Democrats have been able to control both chambers only once in the past 16 years and only three times since 1994.
