WASHINGTON — Foreign policy, traditionally a sideshow in U.S. midterm elections, has taken center stage as the Iran war's economic repercussions intersect with domestic concerns just days before voters head to the polls on November 3.
The conflict, initiated in February 2026 under the Trump administration with Israeli coordination, has driven gas and diesel prices to record highs, creating headwinds for Republican candidates in their strongholds and testing President Trump's relationship with his base of manufacturing workers, business owners and farmers. The war, which can be characterized as a war of choice due to its questionable urgency, has cost taxpayers approximately $38 billion, with an additional $67 billion requested from Congress for munitions restocking.
The economic fallout has become a defining issue. The Associated Press reported that between September 1 and October 14, campaign ads featuring Iran ran in at least half of 50 competitive Senate and House races, with total spending reaching $42 million. Almost all of the 65 unique ads linked the Iran war to the cost of living, connecting foreign military action to kitchen-table concerns about gas prices and inflation.
President Trump had explicitly ruled out attacking Iran before the November 3 election, though reports indicated continued U.S.-Israel coordination on military planning. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Trump "hasn't made a decision" and still prefers a diplomatic solution. The war's impact on energy markets has been particularly pronounced, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — which handles about one-fifth of global oil shipments — sending shockwaves across global energy supplies, though the United States, as the largest oil producer and net exporter, has felt the impact less severely than many allies.
The war has also intensified partisan and generational divides. Pew Research polling shows 53% of American adults hold unfavorable views of Israel, while younger voters have increasingly questioned unconditional U.S. support. From May to July, support among MAGA supporters for the war's cost fell from half to a third. Democrats and progressive politicians have tapped into the resulting voter frustration, focusing on affordability issues and linking them to wider foreign policy developments.
As voters determine control of Congress, the Iran war's economic and political legacies represent a significant shift in midterm dynamics, with foreign policy no longer a peripheral consideration but a defining factor in voter calculus.
