AUSTIN, Texas — A new poll shows Republican Ken Paxton holding a razor-thin lead over Democrat James Talarico in the race for U.S. Senate from Texas as the contest enters its final days ahead of Election Day on Tuesday.
The Quantus Insights poll of 1,221 likely voters, conducted Oct. 26-28, found 48.7 percent backing Paxton and 47.6 percent supporting Talarico, well within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. Republicans made up 46.7 percent of respondents, Democrats 39.4 percent and Independents 13.9 percent. More than half of respondents had already voted, with early voting in Texas concluding at 7 p.m. Friday.
The race has consistently shown one of the narrowest margins in a Texas Senate race in decades. The Quantus poll found Talarico holding leads among women, independents and Hispanic voters, while Paxton led among men, suburban and rural voters.
Prediction markets increasingly favor Talarico. Polymarket showed the Democrat with approximately 76 percent chance of victory, and Kalshi put his chances at roughly 74 percent, with a forecast suggesting he could win by approximately 3.8 percentage points.
Both candidates campaigned aggressively across the state in the final days. At a rally in San Antonio, Paxton highlighted affordability and his proposed "Protecting the Texas Promise Plan," telling supporters: "Every poll shows it's gonna come down to the wire." He concluded with President Trump's rallying cry: "Fight, fight, fight." Talarico described the election as a battle between "the powers that be and the powers that ought to be," accusing powerful interests of having "bought and paid for Ken Paxton."
Early voting in Texas ends at 7 p.m. Friday. Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Election Day, which is Tuesday. The winner will succeed in a seat that has been held by Republicans since 1988, making this one of the most closely watched Senate contests in the country.
