WASHINGTON — Republicans confront historical midterm headwinds as President Donald Trump's decisions on tariffs, foreign policy and domestic projects complicate their path to maintaining congressional majorities.
Midterms almost always serve as a referendum on the president's party, and losses typically ensue. But Trump's imposition of tariffs, initiation of a trade war with Canada and oversight of Washington renovations — largely without congressional consultation — have made it harder for Republicans to navigate those historical headwinds. His import taxes disrupted the agricultural economy and triggered a trade war with Canada, putting Republicans on defense in Senate races from Iowa to Maine. The conflict with Iran that Trump said would be over in weeks continues eight months later with no clear strategy for conclusion, starkly at odds with his pledge to not engage in Middle East conflicts.
About one-third of U.S. adults approve of how Trump is handling the presidency, according to AP-NORC polling, lower than Biden's approval in AP-NORC polling just before the 2022 midterms and Trump's first-term approval which stood around 40%. This low approval rating could weigh on Republican candidates across the ballot.
Trump's political groups have spent nearly $277 million since September to boost Republicans, a staggering amount that puts this year on pace to be the most expensive midterm ever. Yet this financial advantage may not be enough to offset the political challenges. In Texas, outgoing Republican Sen. John Cornyn has warned that Trump's primary pick, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, is weak against Democrat James Talarico, a state representative.
Former President Barack Obama has campaigned for Democratic candidates, arguing the administration's actions are directly responsible for rising costs. Democrats have kept up the pressure, spending hundreds of millions on advertising that connects Republicans to Trump. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has argued that the corruption seen is directly connected to the pain people are feeling economically.
Meanwhile, Trump has dismissed affordability challenges as a hoax and told a Georgia rally he does not give a damn about criticism of gas prices, even as he celebrated profits for U.S. oil and gas companies. A ballroom project at the White House that Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts deemed likely unlawful continues to rise, and the administration has signaled it could begin work on building a triumphal arch near Arlington National Cemetery.
Democrats also face risks, with warnings about over-interpreting the results and voters not falling in love with the party. The midterm outcome will mark the beginning of a high-stakes fight over the country's political future in the twilight of the Trump era.
